NOAA’s Updated Montana Winter Forecast for 2026-27

We are keeping a close eye on the winter forecast here in Montana. There has been a lot of talk about El Niño, including the possibility of a strong or even “super” El Niño, and what that could mean for us.

We’ve also been watching the NOAA forecast.

NOAA's Forecast: A New Look at Montana's Winter Conditions

At the end of July, NOAA was forecasting the potential for El Niño conditions to develop, with warmer-than-average temperatures and below-average precipitation expected across parts of Montana.

That combination could have a pretty big impact on the ski and snowboard season here in Montana.

The latest NOAA update for December, January, and February continues to show a similar pattern.

Montana's Northern Regions: Anticipating a Mild Winter

Parts of Montana, especially northern Montana, are currently showing a greater likelihood of warmer-than-average temperatures and below-average precipitation.

Of course, this is still a long-range forecast, so things can change. We have a long way to go before we know exactly what winter is going to look like.

It doesn't exactly sound like great news for Montana ski resorts, though.

Year-Round Outdoor Activities: The New Focus for Ski Resorts

Ski resorts across the country are already preparing for situations where they may not have as much snow as they would like.

A lot of resorts are starting to focus more on becoming year-round destinations, adding activities like zip lines, mountain biking, hiking, and other ways for people to enjoy the mountains even when there's not much snow.

That could become even more important if we end up with another warm and dry winter.

So, here's a look at what NOAA is currently showing for December 2026 through February 2027.